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Tradour explained
The language and safeguards used in Tradour research.
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Tradour explained
What is a Tradour directional feature?
A Tradour directional feature records how a source labelled an expected move. It is research data, not an instruction to trade.
Tradour explained
Displayed and raw direction
Raw direction is the source label before transformation; displayed direction is the label after the documented presentation rule. Tradour keeps both so inversion cannot become hidden interpretation.
Tradour explained
Indicator count
Indicator count records how many source indicators contributed to an observation under the BSP convention. It is a descriptive feature, not a validated confidence score.
Tradour explained
Rise/Drop strength
Rise/Drop strength is a source-provided feature describing the degree attached to a directional label under its own convention. Tradour does not treat it as calibrated probability.
Tradour explained
Historical and prospective evidence
Historical evidence examines outcomes already known to the archive; prospective evidence freezes a record before the outcome exists. The second protects against hindsight in a way replay cannot.
Tradour explained
Prospective validation
Prospective validation tests a frozen candidate on future qualifying observations recorded before outcomes. It adds evidence without allowing the rule to learn from the answers being scored.
Tradour explained
The Tradour evidence lifecycle
The Tradour evidence lifecycle keeps exploratory, candidate, validated, Playbook and prospective states distinct. Movement requires explicit evidence and review rather than persuasive presentation.
Tradour explained
What does Exploratory mean?
Exploratory means a pattern was observed while questions, cohorts or thresholds were still being examined. It is useful for forming hypotheses but already exposed to selection.
Tradour explained
What does Candidate mean?
Candidate means an exploratory pattern has been restated as a precise, versioned hypothesis suitable for further testing. It has a plan, not yet the required validating evidence.
Tradour explained
What does Validated mean?
Validated means a candidate has met the repository's approved evidence, reproducibility and review requirements for that claim. The status remains scoped to its version and limitations.
Tradour explained
What is the Tradour Playbook?
The Tradour Playbook is the governed home for findings that meet the required evidence and publication state. Ideas being tested remain clearly separate from established entries.
Tradour explained
What is a canonical outcome?
A canonical outcome is the versioned primary measure Tradour approves for a research question. It fixes timing, calendar, price fields, horizon, direction and edge cases before comparison.
Tradour explained
What is a legacy outcome?
A legacy outcome is a historical measure retained for reproduction and provenance even though it is not the current canonical definition. It must remain visibly labelled and separate.
Tradour explained
Why a zero move is Neutral
A Neutral outcome records an exactly zero directional move under the canonical definition. It belongs neither in Rise nor Drop and should not be forced into success or failure.
Tradour explained
How to read a sector finding
A sector finding describes a pattern within a defined sector cohort under a specified taxonomy and outcome. It does not imply every company in the sector behaves alike.
Tradour explained
How a finding becomes more credible
A finding becomes more credible as its definition, data, effect, uncertainty, robustness, independence and prospective performance withstand separate checks. No single percentage supplies credibility.
Tradour explained
What is a research cohort?
A research cohort is the set of observations that meet a frozen inclusion rule for a question. Its boundary determines which population the result can describe.
Tradour explained
Tradour publication gates
A Tradour publication gate is a defined check that content or evidence must pass before entering a public state. It protects truthfulness, provenance, accessibility and security.
Tradour explained
Why Tradour keeps an audit trail
An audit trail preserves sources, versions, transformations, decisions and corrections so a result can be reproduced and its history understood. It prevents later knowledge from silently rewriting earlier claims.
Tradour explained
Why no current observation can be useful
No current observation means the approved data and rules produced nothing qualifying for the present period, or the required data is unavailable. It is an honest product state, not a failure to invent activity.