Tradour explained
Historical evidence examines outcomes already known to the archive; prospective evidence freezes a record before the outcome exists. The second protects against hindsight in a way replay cannot.
Make it click
Watching an old match again can teach a great deal, but only a prediction sealed before a new match proves what was genuinely expected beforehand.
Now put that into markets
Tradour keeps retrospective analysis and prospective observation as different record types. The first can form hypotheses; the second tests frozen versions.
Prospective records preserve inputs, timestamps, expectations and later outcomes through append-only events. Historical replays remain labelled even when methodologically careful.
Look for lifecycle state, freeze time, data exposure and outcome version. Do not let later results rewrite the original prospective record.
Prospective evidence can still be small, noisy or poorly designed. Historical evidence remains useful without being relabelled as live validation.
Takeaway
