Tradour explained
Prospective validation tests a frozen candidate on future qualifying observations recorded before outcomes. It adds evidence without allowing the rule to learn from the answers being scored.
Make it click
A competition rulebook is signed before entrants perform. Changing scoring after seeing a difficult round creates a new competition, not validation of the old one.
Now put that into markets
Tradour versions the candidate, eligibility, outcome and timing, then logs every qualifying observation and later result.
Promotion thresholds, exclusions and review roles must be defined in advance. Rule changes create new versions and do not rewrite prior losses.
Audit the freeze, sequence, missing cases and complete denominator. Compare prospective effect with the historical claim and uncertainty.
One favourable future event is not validation, and stopping after a good run biases the record. Adequate evidence depends on the pre-agreed design.
Takeaway
