Reading the evidence
Falsifiability means a claim permits some possible evidence to count against it. A claim that explains every outcome after the fact cannot be meaningfully tested.
Make it click
A lock said to open with one key is testable because failure is possible. A seller who names a different invisible key after every attempt protects the story, not the claim.
Now put that into markets
A trading rule should specify when it qualifies and what outcome would weaken it. Moving thresholds or narratives after results removes that pressure.
Falsification is rarely absolute in noisy data; evidence can update confidence rather than deliver one final verdict. Auxiliary assumptions also matter.
Write failure criteria and tolerated uncertainty before outcomes. Preserve disconfirming observations and distinguish a revised hypothesis as a new version.
Being falsifiable does not make a claim true or important. Poor measurements can reject a good idea or protect a bad one.
Takeaway
