Reading the evidence
Win rate is the proportion of positive outcomes; profitability depends on the size of wins and losses, costs, exposure and sequence. A strategy can win often and still lose money.
Make it click
Nine small prizes feel successful until one large penalty exceeds them. Counting winning rounds without their amounts hides the total result.
Now put that into markets
Trading expectancy combines win probability, average win and average loss before costs. Position size and compounding affect realised capital.
Outcome definitions, breakeven treatment and overlapping trades change the rate. Skewed strategies need tail analysis.
Show the full distribution, net return, drawdown and sample with the win rate. Compare like-sized risk units where appropriate.
A high rate can come from harvesting small gains while carrying rare losses. Historic averages may be unstable and capacity-limited.
Takeaway
