Reading the evidence
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, interpret and remember information in ways that support an existing belief while discounting disconfirming evidence.
Make it click
A magnet collects matching pieces and leaves others behind. The collection then appears to prove that matching pieces were all the table contained.
Now put that into markets
Investors may notice supportive news, reinterpret misses or change reasons after outcomes. Research protocols make contrary evidence harder to ignore.
Bias affects questions, data cleaning, model choice and storytelling. Blinding, adversarial review and pre-specified falsification checks can help.
Write what evidence would change the conclusion before searching. Preserve rejected results and invite a credible opposing interpretation.
Awareness alone does not remove bias, and disagreement is not automatically objective. Procedures matter more than confidence in neutrality.
Takeaway
