Economy & context
A recession is a broad, significant decline in economic activity under the relevant national or analytical convention. Simple consecutive-quarter rules are useful shorthand, not universal definitions.
Make it click
One shop having a poor month is not a town-wide downturn. A recession involves weakness spreading across activity, income, employment or production for meaningful time.
Now put that into markets
Official and research bodies use GDP and wider indicators to date downturns. Market prices often move before a recession is formally identified.
Data revisions can alter initial signals, and depth, diffusion and duration all matter. Nominal spending can rise while real activity contracts.
State country, dating authority and data vintage. Inspect employment, income, production and spending alongside GDP.
A recession label arrives with delay and does not dictate asset returns. Anticipation, policy and valuation can dominate the announcement.
Takeaway
