Reading the evidence
Prospective testing records a rule, inputs and expectation before future outcomes exist, then attaches those outcomes without rewriting the original record.
Make it click
Write the method and expected answer, seal the envelope, then wait for the event. When opened, the dated record prevents memory from improving the forecast.
Now put that into markets
A live research register freezes eligibility, signal, price rule and version before observation. Later results remain linked to that original state.
Timestamps, corrections, missing data and rule changes require append-only handling. New versions start new evidence sequences.
Check what was committed, when, by which clock and whether the outcome was independently available. Include every qualifying event, not only favourable ones.
Prospective design prevents some hindsight but does not fix a poor rule, small sample or execution mismatch. Time must accumulate before strong claims.
Takeaway
