Markets & trading
Bull and bear markets are informal labels for substantial rising or falling market phases. Thresholds and start dates vary, so the label must be tied to an index and convention.
Make it click
Calling a journey uphill or downhill requires a chosen start, destination and path. A short dip inside a long climb can be described differently at another scale.
Now put that into markets
Commentary often uses percentage drawdown or recovery conventions to label market phases. Those conventions describe history; they do not announce the next turn.
Price-return and total-return indices can cross thresholds at different times. Intraday, closing and local-currency data also alter dates.
Ask which market, measure, threshold and observation frequency is being used. Examine duration, drawdown and breadth rather than relying on the animal label.
A label applied after a threshold can encourage hindsight and false precision. Individual assets may move differently from the broad market.
Takeaway
